COMMISSION’S IMPACT ASSESSMENT
For further information regarding the context of this issue, please refer to the summary of the Commission’s Communication: Comprehensive monitoring report on the state of preparedness for EU membership of Bulgaria and Romania – COM(2005)0534
1- POLICY OPTIONS AND IMPACTS: The Commission’s policy options are circumscribed by the detailed guidance on EU policy towards the candidate countries which is regularly laid down by Council, notably by the European Council. One aspect of established EU policy is that the Commission needs to continue to monitor progress by Bulgaria in order to provide the Commission and the Union as a whole with the necessary knowledge of the current situation and outlook in Bulgaria. The Commission publishes its findings and recommendations in a Communication to Council and European Parliament.
In the case of Bulgaria, the Union’s and the Commission’s action at this stage is based on the expected entry into force of the Accession Treaty. The main decisions relating to Bulgaria have thus already been taken. Within the established EU policy, the Commission can and should make proposals and recommendations based on its expert analysis. These may cover the following two types of actions:
Firstly, based on its findings, the Commission is able to advise and assist Bulgaria to achieve its aim of being ready for membership by 1 January 2007. In order to achieve its policy objectives, the Commission will need to act by targeting its advice and assistance on addressing its findings. These may include the dispatch of substantiated early warning letters to the authorities, the organisation of further peer reviews, the implementation of support measures, or other instruments and initiatives.
Secondly, based on the findings of its continuous monitoring, the Commission will, if necessary and at the appropriate time, consider whether specific safeguard measures should be envisaged or whether accession should be postponed for Bulgaria. Depending on the precise procedure prescribed by law, the Commission can take or recommend such measures.
In most cases, a specific legislative act would need to be adopted. In its Communication, adopted on 25 October 2005, the Commission defines the next steps to be taken by Bulgaria (measures that need to be taken by Bulgaria, monitoring and safeguards, EU support measures).
IMPACTS: The conclusions and recommendations of the Comprehensive Monitoring Report will have a considerable political impact.
They will determine the content and focus of the Commission’s and the EU’s dialogue with Bulgaria over the coming months and can be expected to have a considerable mobilising effect on political, legislative and administrative activity in areas relevant to EU accession. The Report will also determine the focus of the Commission’s further monitoring of progress and guide the implementation of advice and assistance programmes.
The Comprehensive Monitoring Report may have an indirect economic impact. Indeed, if the Commission concludes that Bulgaria must increase its preparation efforts, it may be expected to speed up alignment with the acquis and strengthen administrative capacity, which in turn should have a positive impact on the economic environment.
2- FOLLOW-UP: The precise follow-up depends on the conclusions and recommendations of the Comprehensive Monitoring Report. However, the Commission is in any case committed to continuing close monitoring of the situation and outlook in Bulgaria and of its possible impact on the Union up to its accession, including, if necessary, through further reports. This further monitoring will also evaluate the impact of the Communication of 25 October 2005 as part of the permanent impact assessment loop, whereby the Commission identifies gaps, and evaluates commitments and measures taken by the country to fill them.